Dealing with Manitoba Flooding versus Dealing with Covid-19 -- A Simple Analogy for Doctors and Politician
Trying to convince people that the overwhelming data clearly demonstrates that the catastrophic consequences of restrictions and lockdowns to deal with Covid-19 far outweigh any benefits -- is like talking to the Flat Earth Society to convince them that our planet is round or talking to the villagers to convince them that Chicken Little is wrong -- "THE SKY IS NOT FALLING!
In order to help create an understanding of how badly the world is dealing with Covid-19 and the destructive consequences that are being foisted upon the world, I decide to present a simple analogy between dealing with the Manitoba Floods and Dealing with Covid-19.
MY ASSUMPTION ABOUT HOW TO DEAL WITH CRISES
Authorities are often faced with having to deal with major crises -- floods, fires, earthquakes, etc.; Tough decisions have to be made in order to arrive at optimal outcomes and, of course, being human, mistakes can be made.
However, decisions are usually based on implementing the strategy which will reduce the negative consequences for the largest number of people. Often, in order to protect the well-being of the many, the few have to suffer the negative impact of the crisis more intensely. No one is pleased to see this happen, but it often does,
The way the Manitoba Government handled the flooding of 2011 is an example of putting a strategy in place to mitigate the devastation of the flooding to the many.
I am going to describe how the Manitoba Floods of 2011 were dealt with. I feel the authorities followed the strategy -- In order to protect the well-being of the many, the few have to suffer the negative impact of the crisis more intensely
Then I am going to describe how the Covid-19 crisis has been handled and I hope to demonstrate that medical authorities have followed the opposite strategy -- in order to protect the well-being of the FEW, the MANY have to suffer the negative impact of the crisis more intensely.
DEALING WITH THE MANITOBA FLOODS 2011
Protecting the Many
This was a 1 in 300 year flood that affected much of Western Manitoba. The flooding in Manitoba was expected to mostly involve the 2011 Red River Flood but instead the more severe flooding was found on the Assiniboine in the west.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07011784.2015.1046139?src=recsys
Due to unprecedented flooding in 2011, an emergency outlet channel was built to drain flood water from Lake St. Martin and Lake Manitoba into Lake Winnipeg.
7,100 Manitobans were displaced from their homes, with 2,700 still evacuated at the end of the year.
Flooding affected three million hectares of farmland, requiring ranchers to move thousands of livestock.
Local states of emergency were declared in 70 Manitoba communities.
Flood waters forced the closure of 850 roads, including parts of the Trans-Canada Highway.
The massive flood fighting effort involved thousands of emergency measures officials and volunteers, including inmates from a local jail, and 1,800 members of the Canadian military.
https://www.gov.mb.ca/flooding/history/index.html
Negative Consequences suffered by the Few
The majority of flood damages were incurred by communities and infrastructure along major tributaries like the Souris and Qu’Appelle Rivers, and the communities on Lake Manitoba and Lake St. Martin. The Lake St. Martin First Nations community was virtually destroyed.
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/07011784.2015.1046139?src=recsys
The Results of the Manitoba Flood Strategy
Manitoba’s disastrous flood of 2011 would have been even worse without the sometimes-controversial measures taken to control the water flow, the province says.
Officials released a report Wednesday on 2011 water levels on the Assiniboine River, Lake Manitoba and Lake St. Martin.
The Portage Diversion and other flood-control measures saved several communities along the Assiniboine west of Winnipeg from being flooded, the report says.
It also suggests water levels on Lake Manitoba, which critics have frequently blamed on “artificial flooding {caused by the diversion},” would have been higher with or without use of the diversion, which diverted water from the swollen Assiniboine at Portage La Prairie up to Lake Manitoba.
The province has pegged the cost of the 2011 flood at about $1 billion, but the report released Wednesday says damage would have been far worse without flood protection measures like the Portage Diversion and Shellmouth Dam in place.
https://globalnews.ca/news/906345/flood-control-works-saved-province-from-disaster-in-2011-report/
2019-2021 DEALING WITH THE COVID-19
Protecting the Few
Although there were notable exceptions, most countries around the world followed the advice of medical and public health authorities and imposed similar lockdowns or restrictions to contain the spread of Covid-19
1. Covid-19 patients were given top priority for medical care.
2. Various degrees of social distancing and social isolation, including complete lockdowns, were imposed.
3. To varying degrees, business, industries, restaurants, fitness centres, pubs and bars, personal grooming establishments, stores, and generally all work venues were closed under penalty of fines, imprisonment, or property seizures.
4. Domestic travel and international travel was forbidden, again differently from country to country.
5. Library, schools, colleges, and universities were closed at variable times. Education became available exclusively online in some jurisdictions.
6. Professional and medical offices were closed -- Doctor's offices, some clinics not involved in Covid-19 clinics, lawyer's offices, accounting offices, dental clinics, etc.
I agree that this list may not be exhaustive; however, I feel it is sufficient to give the idea of what the Covid-19 restrictions and lockdowns have been.
Who are the Few?
As of today, May 19 2021, there have been a total of 163,897,520 Covid-19 cases world wide.
There have been 3,396,439 Covid-19 deaths worldwide.
There have been 142,498,570 Covid-19 deaths worldwide.
There are currently 18,002,511 active cases.
99.4% (17,900,430) are in mild condition.
0.6% (102,081) are in serious to critical condition
Do these numbers look impressive in a world of 7,500,000,000?
Negative Consequences for the Many
-- see the attached links below
1. Non-Covid-19 patients had treatments, tests, surgeries, diagnoses, etc., postponed including surgeries to remove malignant tumours -- I call that criminal negligence.
2. The offices of specialist such as oncologists, organ specialist, psychiatrist, counsellors, etc., were closed depriving non-Covid 19 patients of getting medical treatment.
3. The social isolation and distancing caused a significant mental health pandemic -- increasing suicide rates and death from domestic violence.
4. The closing of businesses and most places of work has caused a horrendous increase in unemployment, leading to loss of livelihood, loss of homes and shelter, etc.
5. Online learning has disadvantage the students living below the poverty level because they do not have computers. Since schools, universities, colleges, and libraries, and even coffee shops and internet cafes are closed, these lower income students cannot access online learning by using the public computers.
6. The financial collapse caused by the Covid-19 restrictions has destroyed transportation infrastructure and closed the food chain, in a year when wheat had a banner harvest, was closed. This has increased the number of people in the world who will die from starvation.
Who are the Many?
The first group is those who have a non-Covid-19 disease and have been criminally neglected.
Their being neglected has led to estimates that death from these disease have increased 25 to 35% because of their conditions being neglected. Here is the deaths from them in an average year without any help from Covid-19 lockdowns.
Cancer is among the leading causes of death worldwide. In 2018, there were 18.1 million new cases and 9.5 million cancer-related deaths worldwide.
The rate of new cases of cancer (cancer incidence) is 442.4 per 100,000 men and women per year (based on 2013–2017 cases).
The cancer death rate (cancer mortality) is 158.3 per 100,000 men and women per year (based on 2013–2017 deaths).
https://www.cancer.gov/about-cancer/understanding/statistics
An estimated 17 million people die of CVDs (Cardiovascular Diseases), particularly heart attacks and strokes, every year
https://www.who.int/cardiovascular_diseases/resources/atlas/en/
Respiratory diseases are leading causes of death and disability in the world. About 65 million people suffer from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and 3 million die from it each year, making it the third leading cause of death worldwide.
The_Global_Impact_of_Respiratory_Disease pdf
In 2017, CKD (Chronic Kidney Disease) resulted in 1.2 million deaths and was the 12th leading cause of death worldwide. In addition, 7.6% of all CVD deaths (1.4 million) could be attributed to impaired kidney function. Together, deaths due to CKD or to CKD-attributable CVD accounted for 4.6% of all-cause mortality.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41581-020-0268-7
Liver disease accounts for approximately 2 million deaths per year worldwide.
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/30266282/
There are many other diseases of the MANY that I have not included -- e.g., HIV/AIDS, Cholera, Malaria, Ebola, etc., but I know these patients are also being criminally neglected.
Just counting the statistics I listed for only the 5 non-Covid-19 diseases, the total deaths in a year on average is
32.7 millions deaths a year when not neglected.
If the estimates are correct about the increased deaths from Covid-19 restrictions neglect , at least an additional 8.2 million will die thanks to making Covid-19 the only priority.
The total deaths per year would be approximately
42 million neglected victims in 12 months.
Compare this huge number to the 3.3 million who have died from Covid-19 in 17 months.
The second group is those who suffer from depression and try to commit suicide as a result.
Close to 800 000 people die due to suicide every year, which is one person every 40 seconds. Suicide is a global phenomenon and occurs throughout the lifespan. Effective and evidence-based interventions can be implemented at population, sub-population and individual levels to prevent suicide and suicide attempts. There are indications that for each adult who died by suicide there may have been more than 20 others attempting suicide.
https://www.who.int/teams/mental-health-and-substance-use/suicide-data
Suicides have increased an estimated 30% because of social isolation and distancing. So the number of deaths may reach 1.1 million but the number of attempts could exceed 20 million.
The third group is those who are suffering from starvation and have had the problem exacerbated by the economic collapse caused by Covid-19 Restrictions leading to a breakdown of the food chain transportation.
Around 9 million people die every year of hunger and hunger-related diseases.
Poor nutrition and hunger is responsible for the death of 3.1 million children a year. That’s nearly half of all deaths in children under the age of 5. The children die because their bodies lack basic nutrients.
Globally, 822 million people suffer from undernourishment.
Organizations like OXFAM are estimating that deaths from Starvation has increased 10 fold. If their estimates are correct, than deaths from Covid-19 restrictions caused starvation will rise to
100 million innocent starvation victims of criminal negligence by an medical establishment who foisted upon the world an ill-thought out plan to deal with Covid-19.
The fourth group is those who suffered the loss of their livelihoods, some their homes, and most their dignity because of the close of bascially all places of employment.
The coronavirus pandemic took a huge toll on global jobs last year, the United Nations said Monday, with the equivalent of more than a quarter of a billion lost.
In a fresh study, the UN's International Labour Organization (ILO) found that a full 8.8 per cent of global working hours were lost in 2020, compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.
That is equivalent to 255 million full-time jobs, or "approximately four times greater than the number lost during the 2009 global financial crisis," the ILO said in a statement.
I could give more information about the horrendous consequences of Covid-19 Restrictions and Lockdown; However, I hope you are by now at least considering that unlike the government of Manitoba who employed a strategy to protect the many, the medical establishment employed a Covid-19 strategy that is destroying the well-being and even the lives of over 300,000,000 million innocent victims through criminal neglect of non-Covid 19 patients, destroying the transportation infrastructure, forcing joblessness terrible unemployment, and creating an environment which is leading to increased suicide
The Results of the Covid-19 Strategy
From the BMJ
"Lockdowns can also cause long term health harms, such as from delayed treatment and investigations. Delays in the diagnosis and treatment of various types of cancer, for example, can allow progression of cancer and affect patients’ survival. A three month delay to surgery is estimated to cause more than 4700 deaths a year in the UK.13 In the US, delays in screening and treatment are estimated to cause 250 000 additional preventable deaths of cancer patients each year.14 Furthermore, a sharp decrease in the number of admissions for acute coronary syndromes and emergency coronary procedures has been observed since the start of the pandemic in the US15 and Europe.16 In England, the weekly number of hospital admissions for coronary syndromes fell by 40% between mid-February and the end of March 2020. Fear of exposure to the virus stopped many patients from attending hospital, putting them at increased risk of long term complications of myocardial infarction...
"The coronavirus pandemic is far from over. Many countries are already reeling from the effects of the pandemic response as well as trying to cope with additional waves of dangerous infection rates. Governments will have to make difficult decisions that rely on uncertain and changing data regarding the most effective approaches to contain the pandemic. Although the evidence on the adverse consequences of measures to control covid-19 continues to grow,1325262728 there remains a paucity of any such voices in the public and decision making conversation, which seems to convey a dominant narrative of pandemic mitigation at all costs. This is perhaps a reflection of the challenge of the moment, but we must adopt a more nuanced approach to understanding the pros and cons of different approaches.
A “zero covid” goal is neither realistic nor sustainable for most countries. Instead, public health needs to increase its investment into assessing the harms of policy options from different perspectives and to explicitly consider and transparently report the harmful consequences of public choices when deciding on and evaluating public health strategies to combat SARS-CoV-2. Epidemiologists, health economists, social scientists, psychologists, historians, ethicists, among others, must all contribute to these efforts and assist governments in making informed decisions—improving and protecting the health of all communities."
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4074
From Frontiers in Psychology -- Health Psychology
"Also, it is expected that hundreds of millions of people will die from hunger and postponed medical treatments. Other side effects include financial insecurity of billions of people, physical and mental health problems, and increased inequalities. The economic and health repercussions of the crisis will be falling disproportionately on young workers, low-income families and women, and thus exacerbate existing inequalities. As the virus outbreak and media coverage spread fear and anxiety, superstition, cognitive dissonance reduction and conspiracy theories are ways to find meaning and reduce anxiety. These behavioral aspects may play a role in the continuance of lockdown decisions. Based on theories regarding agnotology (i.e., the ways ignorance or doubt about certain topics is created by means of withholding or presenting information in a certain way), social influence, superstition and stress and coping, I seek to explain the social and behavioral aspects of human behavior in times of crises. Both the Covid-19 crisis itself as well as the resulting economic and (mental) health crisis are global problems that may require global solutions. I present a model of drivers and outcomes of lockdown behaviors and offer suggestions and a tool to counteract the negative psychological effects by means of online life crafting therapeutic writing interventions."
HOLD THE MEDICAL WORLD ACCOUNTABLE FOR THEIR CRIMINAL NEGLIGENCE!
Do you need more evidence that lockdowns and restrictions are causing death and destruction around the world. Here is a small sampling ot the reports available.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/22/world/africa/coronavirus-hunger-crisis.html
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200528-why-most-covid-19-deaths-wont-be-from-the-virus
https://time.com/5864803/oxfam-hunger-covid-19/
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/john-ioannidis-another-shutdown-would-do-more-harm-than-good
https://www.suicideinfo.ca/resource/the-impact-of-the-covid-19-pandemic-on-suicide-rates/
https://time.com/5864803/oxfam-hunger-covid-19/
https://www.bmj.com/content/371/bmj.m4263
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-data-are-in-its-time-for-major-reopening-11592264199
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/10/12/coronavirus-stanford-doctors-among-leaders-of-global-anti-lockdown-movement/
https://www.un.org/press/en/2020/ga12294.doc.htm
https://publichealthreviews.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s40985-020-00139-0
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2020.577740/full
https://www.statnews.com/2020/04/27/hear-scientists-different-views-covid-19-dont-attack-them/
https://munkdebates.com/podcast/covid-19
https://munkdebates.com/podcast/are-we-overreacting-to-covid-19
Tell me which of these sites are conspiracy theorist sites and where is their misinformation??? They are just filling in the information which the medical establishment is not giving us.
LET US STOP THE DAMAGE BEING CAUSED BY BLINDLY FOLLOWING THE POORLY THOUGHT OUT ADVICE OF THE MEDICAL ESTABLISHMENT.
HOLD THE MEDICAL WORLD ACCOUNTABLE FOR THEIR CRIMINAL NEGLIGENCE!
OR THEY WILL RAIN DOWN THE SAME CATASTROPHE ON THE WORLD WHENEVER THEY WANT TO!
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